If you’ve been in the games industry for more than five minutes, you’ve heard people talk about Steam wishlists like they’re magic. But are they actually that important anymore? And how much do they really say about a game’s potential?
Well, Video Game Insights (VGI) just dropped a fresh report on wishlist trends across the last 12 months and it’s packed with data. I read through it so you don’t have to. Let’s break it down.
Most Games Don’t Break 10K Wishlists
Let’s start with the basics: wishlist numbers are very top-heavy.
While games like Black Myth: Wukong and Hades II are pulling in millions of wishlists, most titles barely crack the 10K mark. According to VGI’s data, only a small fraction of games hit 100K wishlists before launch and those that do are usually action, adventure, or RPG titles backed by bigger publishers.
The top games:
- Black Myth: Wukong – 4.3M
- Monster Hunter Wilds – 2.9M
- Manor Lords – 2.8M
- inZOI – 2.6M
Meanwhile, the long tail of indie games? Struggling to get visibility, as expected.
Genre Still Matters — A Lot
Not all genres are created equal when it comes to wishlist momentum.
RPG, Strategy, and Action games dominate in wishlist counts. Casual games and MMOs, not so much. VGI’s numbers show that MMOs often rely on strong live ops and community-building after launch, not pre-release hype. Makes sense if you’ve been around the space.
If you’re making something niche, expect slower wishlist growth. Doesn’t mean you’re doomed, just means you’ll need to rely more on word-of-mouth and solid retention post-launch.
100K+ Wishlists = Strong Launch Odds
This one’s pretty simple: games that pass 100K wishlists have a much higher shot at success out of the gate.
According to the report:
- A game with under 10K wishlists? Probably not going to break out.
- Hit 100K+? You’re very likely to have a solid launch.
- 1M+ wishlists? You’re basically guaranteed a multi-million seller.
There’s about a 70% correlation between wishlist count and first-month unit sales. Below 100K wishlists, that correlation is pretty weak. But once you cross that line, it becomes a strong predictive signal.
So yeah, wishlists aren’t everything, but if you’re aiming for a hit, you’ll want to start stacking them early.
When to Launch Your Steam Page? The Earlier the Better
One of the most actionable takeaways from the report: get your Steam page live early, ideally 6–12 months before launch.
Games that launched their pages about a year in advance and slowly built momentum with devlogs, trailers, and community updates saw much stronger wishlist growth. Obvious advice, but still ignored by a lot of teams.
Interestingly, even big games like Final Fantasy XVI or Spider-Man 2 that dropped trailers late could’ve done better if they had put up a Steam page sooner.
Case Study: Kingdom Come Deliverance 2
This one was interesting.
KCD2 steadily built wishlists with each trailer and dev update and had already stacked up 72% of its total wishlists by the time it was three months from launch.
Their strategy? Announce early, keep the updates coming, and ramp up closer to launch. Not groundbreaking, but it worked and the data shows it clearly.
TL;DR
- Most games don’t pass 10K wishlists and 100K is the magic number for real launch traction.
- RPGs, strategy, and action games dominate wishlist counts.
- Launch your Steam page early. Like, 6–12 months early.
- Big wishlist counts = bigger odds of success. No surprise there.
- Momentum matters, keep your audience warm with regular updates.
Final Thoughts
Wishlists are still one of the cleanest signals we’ve got for how hyped people are about a game pre-launch. They’re not perfect, and they definitely don’t guarantee success. But if you’re a dev, studio, or publisher trying to predict how well a game will perform, wishlist growth is still one of your best early indicators.
And if you’re not tracking that data? You’re flying blind.
